Who’d a thunk it? The story broke over at Vanity Fair.
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Monthly Archive for May, 2005
Some folks still call it Decoration Day. When I was a kid, Memorial Day was one of my favorite holidays because there was a parade that ended at the school across from my house and afterwards, it seemed like the whole town came to our backyard for a huge cookout, complete with marshmallow toasting and cans of pop. I don’t think it really occured to me at the time to wonder why we observe this holiday — I was a kid and it was a party and if we were supposed to remember something, well, the grownups would take care of it — but I suppose I took the large number of veterans in the parade as some indication and left it at that. I’m not sure when it sunk in for me that Memorial Day is more than just a party or a day when all the pools open for the summer, but all those bodies that Dubya doesn’t want us to see returning stateside certainly drive the point home.
I didn’t make it over to the cemetery this morning, but I will remember.
UPDATE: a breakdown of our losses so far in Bush’s war is available here along with some memorial links.
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Thank goodness all the gays aren’t being allowed to mess it up for the rest of us.
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Sadly, this idiocy didn’t even come close to making number one, but with so much to choose from — check out this clip of Norm Coleman getting his arse handed to him by a Scot — the idiots are just going to have to try harder for the top spots (via This Century Sucks):
Here’s a conundrum for conservatives – what do you do with a teenage girl who becomes pregnant, but rather than having an abortion decides to keep the baby, and not only that but goes on to complete high school? Last week, St. Jude Educational Institute answered the question by barring student Alysha Cosby from taking part in her own graduation ceremony because she was pregnant.
So let me get this straight – if she’d gotten an abortion, she could have participated (or perhaps if she’d gotten comprehensive sex education, but that’s another story). But the shame of a pregnant high school graduate was just too much for St. Jude’s to bear? Fortunately Cosby decided to take matters into her own hands, attended the graduation ceremony, waited until the last student had been called, and then called her own name and walked across the stage. Props.
Oh, and by the way – in case you were wondering, the male student who got Alysha pregnant was not barred from participating in the ceremony. What a surprise.
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I only just got around to realizing that today is a Friday Creature day. Here’s a little pooch I saw guarding the entrance to a shop along the streets of Florence last week. Apparently sentry duty is tiring work…
There’re lots of critters up on the Friday Ark already. Check ‘em out and have a great (and safe) holiday weekend!
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Wow! A lot went on around here while I was gone! At the moment, I’m jetlagged, overwhelmed and grateful that I have the weekend for reentry. I’ll try to use the time to catch up on the local news. Also, I’m hopeful that the weekend will bring some positive news for the Mendonsa family. More later…
“Through midst of Tuscany there wanders
A streamlet that is born in Falterona,
And not a hundred miles of course suffice it”
(Dante, Purgatorio – Canto XIV)
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Have a good week, everyone. I’ll be leaving town in the morning. This will be a computer-free holiday for me, so until my return, don’t expect anything here beyond a few tumbleweeds blowing by…
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The dog and I went for a walk though the neighborhood yesterday (after she chased a cat up a tree) and I suspect that the spring vegetation might be reaching its peak, as it’s hard to imagine that it can get much better than this. So many plants are in bloom and there are numerous delightful smells, not only from the various blossoms, but also odd combinations of so many plants — I have hit a few pockets of air that have pinged olfactory memories, causing me to linger in spots along the way until the dog dragged me onward.
This patch of irises sits out at the road next to my driveway. I took this picture about a week ago, but the blossoms are still looking pretty good even today.
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Most sentient beings already suspected that Bush & Co. lied their way into war. Now there’s proof. But, is this story more important than the American Idol finale or Pat Robertson’s latest brainfart? Will Katie Couric, Wolf Blitzer and all the other bobbleheads wake up? Stay tuned…
The secret Downing Street memo
SECRET AND STRICTLY PERSONAL - UK EYES ONLY
DAVID MANNING
From: Matthew Rycroft
Date: 23 July 2002
S 195 /02
cc: Defence Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Attorney-General, Sir Richard Wilson, John Scarlett, Francis Richards, CDS, C, Jonathan Powell, Sally Morgan, Alastair Campbell
IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER’S MEETING, 23 JULY
Copy addressees and you met the Prime Minister on 23 July to discuss Iraq.
This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.
John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam’s regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August.
The two broad US options were:
(a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait).
(b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were:
(i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons.
(ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition.
(iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun “spikes of activity” to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.
For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN.
John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
Conclusions:
(a) We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
(b) The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
(c) CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
(d) The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.
He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
(e) John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
(f) We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.
(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)
MATTHEW RYCROFT
(Rycroft was a Downing Street foreign policy aide)
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